Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts

Uncertainty is a basic attribute of climate, seasonal weather, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is entire and not using a description of its uncertainty. powerful verbal exchange of uncertainty is helping humans higher comprehend the possibility of a specific occasion and improves their skill to make judgements in keeping with the forecast. still, for many years, clients of those forecasts were conditioned to obtain incomplete information regarding uncertainty. they've got develop into used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the hot temperature should be 70 levels Farenheit nine days from now") and utilized their very own event in choosing how a lot self belief to put within the forecast. such a lot forecast items from the private and non-private sectors, together with these from the nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s nationwide climate carrier, proceed this deterministic legacy. thankfully, the nationwide climate provider and others within the prediction group have famous the necessity to view uncertainty as a basic a part of forecasts. by means of partnering with different segments of the neighborhood to appreciate consumer wishes, generate proper and wealthy informational items, and make the most of potent conversation autos, the nationwide climate carrier can take a number one function within the transition to common, potent incorporation of uncertainty info into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes options to the nationwide climate carrier and the wider prediction group on tips on how to make this transition.

Show description

Read Online or Download Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts PDF

Best hydrology books

Principles of Snow Hydrology

This publication describes components affecting the buildup, melting and runoff of water from seasonal snowpacks.

Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments - Volume 3: Terrestrial, Algal, and Siliceous Indicators (Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research)

This 3rd quantity within the advancements in Paleoenvironmental study sequence offers with the most important terrestrial, algal, and siliceous symptoms utilized in paleolimnology. different volumes care for the purchase and archiving of lake sediment cores, chronological options, and large-scale basin research tools (Volume 1), actual and geochemical parameters and techniques (Volume 2), zoological strategies (Volume 4), and statistical and knowledge dealing with tools (Volume 5).

Challenges and Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences

New study possibilities to improve hydrologic sciences promise a greater realizing of the function of water within the Earth approach that can support increase human welfare and the future health of our environment. attaining this figuring out would require either exploratory study to raised know how the common atmosphere services, and problem-driven learn, to satisfy wishes similar to flood safeguard, provide of ingesting water, irrigation, and water pollutants.

Engineering hydrology of arid and semi-arid regions

Content material: creation common feedback Engineering Hydrology for Arid and Semiarid areas Hydrologic Cycle Hydrologic platforms Wadi Hydrology Modeling References Bibliography Meteorological methods and Hydrology advent sunlight and Earth Radiations Temperature Humidity Wind weather switch References Precipitation advent sorts of Precipitation size of Precipitation Precipitation Gauge community Interpretation of Precipitation info typical Precipitation over a space layout Storms References recommended examining Precipitation Losses advent Evaporation Empirical Evaporation Equations Estimation of Evaporation via Analytical equipment Reservoir Evaporation and techniques for Its aid Evaporation and Transpiration Interception floor Retention Loss advised equipment for Estimating Rainfall Losses dimension of Infiltration Infiltration Indexes References Catchment features and Runoff advent Catchment features Estimation of Runoff References flow move size advent dimension of levels Flow-Measuring constructions References Stream-Flow Hydrographs creation features of the Hydrograph Hydrograph Separation The Unit Hydrograph proposal Derivations of Unit Hydrographs from uncomplicated Hydrogaphs Derivation of Unit Hydrograph from advanced Storms Unit Hydrographs for numerous periods artificial Unit Hydrographs Hydrograph of Overland circulate References Bibliography Flood Routing creation Hydraulic Routing thoughts Hydrologic Routing options Case examine: Flood Routing for the HighAswan Dam Reservoir References Groundwater Hydrology creation Distribution of Subsurface Water Groundwater movement Theories Hydraulics of the good and Its layout SLUG assessments Groundwater Recharge program Groundwater toxins References Sediment Yield from Watersheds advent Sediment-Yield Theories Reservoir Sedimentation References Hydraulic buildings advent Crossing Works keep watch over and garage Works References Bibliography Case reviews Case learn 1 Water assets administration in Wadi Naghamish on the North Coastal region of Egypt Case examine 2 Urbanization affects at the Hydrological process of Catchments in Arid and Semiarid areas Case examine three Runoff Simulation utilizing varied Precipitation Loss tools Case learn four layout of Salboukh Flood keep an eye on approach, in Riyadh urban, country of Saudi Arabia Appendix A: Conversion Tables Appendix B: word list Appendix C: facts and Stochastic research in Hydrology Appendix D: A Simplified version for Hydrograph improvement in Arid and Semiarid areas Index

Additional resources for Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts

Example text

If perceptions and reactions to risk were driven mostly or exclusively by statistical probability distributions, they would not be influenced by the way a particular hazard is labeled. Yet, reports about incidences of “mad cow disease” elicit greater fear than reports about incidences of bovine spongiform encephalitis or Creutzfeld-Jacob disease, a more abstract, scientific label for the same disorder (Sinaceur and Heath, 2005). In another example, different labels for the same NWS forecast product have been found to evoke different associations and feelings.

The affected public needs to decide whether and how to act based on an evaluation of their situation, the emergency manager directive, and their access to the services. As to the communication aspect, care is needed when comparing an ongoing event to one that occurred earlier. For example, comparisons of Hurricane Katrina with Hurricane Camille, which occurred in 1969, might have triggered an undesirable response by some (based on their memory). Showing worst-case scenarios, such as the levees failing and the entire Ninth Ward of New Orleans under water, might have created a different response.

Just as risk aversion is typically mediated by an emotional rather than cognitive response, so is ambiguity aversion. Not knowing the precise probability level makes us feel uncomfortable, and feelings of worry or discomfort translate into avoidance. When other factors, such as familiarity with the domain of the decision problem reduce the feelings of worry or discomfort, ambigu- ity aversion disappears or turns into ambiguity seeking. , on a lottery with well-specified probability ­levels) or on a college basketball game where the probability of winning is more ambiguous, they tend to prefer betting on the ambiguous basketball game (Fox and Tversky, 1995).

Download PDF sample

Rated 4.73 of 5 – based on 23 votes