By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Uncertainty is a basic attribute of climate, seasonal weather, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is entire and not using a description of its uncertainty. powerful verbal exchange of uncertainty is helping humans higher comprehend the possibility of a specific occasion and improves their skill to make judgements in keeping with the forecast. still, for many years, clients of those forecasts were conditioned to obtain incomplete information regarding uncertainty. they've got develop into used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the hot temperature should be 70 levels Farenheit nine days from now") and utilized their very own event in choosing how a lot self belief to put within the forecast. such a lot forecast items from the private and non-private sectors, together with these from the nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s nationwide climate carrier, proceed this deterministic legacy. thankfully, the nationwide climate provider and others within the prediction group have famous the necessity to view uncertainty as a basic a part of forecasts. by means of partnering with different segments of the neighborhood to appreciate consumer wishes, generate proper and wealthy informational items, and make the most of potent conversation autos, the nationwide climate carrier can take a number one function within the transition to common, potent incorporation of uncertainty info into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes options to the nationwide climate carrier and the wider prediction group on tips on how to make this transition.
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Additional resources for Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
If perceptions and reactions to risk were driven mostly or exclusively by statistical probability distributions, they would not be influenced by the way a particular hazard is labeled. Yet, reports about incidences of “mad cow disease” elicit greater fear than reports about incidences of bovine spongiform encephalitis or Creutzfeld-Jacob disease, a more abstract, scientific label for the same disorder (Sinaceur and Heath, 2005). In another example, different labels for the same NWS forecast product have been found to evoke different associations and feelings.
The affected public needs to decide whether and how to act based on an evaluation of their situation, the emergency manager directive, and their access to the services. As to the communication aspect, care is needed when comparing an ongoing event to one that occurred earlier. For example, comparisons of Hurricane Katrina with Hurricane Camille, which occurred in 1969, might have triggered an undesirable response by some (based on their memory). Showing worst-case scenarios, such as the levees failing and the entire Ninth Ward of New Orleans under water, might have created a different response.
Just as risk aversion is typically mediated by an emotional rather than cognitive response, so is ambiguity aversion. Not knowing the precise probability level makes us feel uncomfortable, and feelings of worry or discomfort translate into avoidance. When other factors, such as familiarity with the domain of the decision problem reduce the feelings of worry or discomfort, ambigu- ity aversion disappears or turns into ambiguity seeking. , on a lottery with well-specified probability levels) or on a college basketball game where the probability of winning is more ambiguous, they tend to prefer betting on the ambiguous basketball game (Fox and Tversky, 1995).